A more selective market is raising the bar for CFOs

By Nick Francis, Partner, Swan Partners

Last week’s IFT North Conference in Manchester was a useful reminder that market pressure is no longer coming from one direction. For CFOs, the challenge is managing multiple moving parts at once: geopolitical uncertainty, refinancing pressure, cost inflation and shifting investor expectations.

That matters because these issues do not stay neatly contained. The conflict in the Middle East is a good example. The immediate concern is oil prices and the direct cost impact on energy-intensive sectors. But the wider effects are often what finance leaders need to plan for most carefully: supply chain disruption, inflationary pressure, softer consumer demand and the possibility that interest rates remain higher for longer. For businesses already operating on tight margins, that quickly becomes a planning issue as much as a market one. CFOs will need to clearly articulate their business’ defence against cost pressures and link this through to their latest forecasts in real time.

Refinancing is another area where CFOs are facing a more demanding environment. Many loan structures put in place during the pandemic are now being revisited under very different conditions. Capital is still available, but often with less flexibility and more scrutiny. Amend-and-extend discussions, tighter credit processes and more complex lender groups are becoming a routine part of the picture. The rise of private credit adds options – but it can add complexity, especially where situations become stressed.

One theme we also could not avoid on the panel was AI. In software and SaaS, it is already influencing valuations, deal timing and investor appetite, with some processes slowing while buyers reassess business models and value drivers. More broadly, CFOs are also thinking about where AI can genuinely improve internal analysis, forecasting and diligence without creating noise or risk. Key to this is ensuring that data is managed in the right way, with the appropriate confidentiality and audience. We typically help companies to build a curated set of data and outputs that are appropriate for the user (management, Board, shareholder, bidder), through designing and building a bespoke cube.

The wider takeaway is that this is a more selective market. For CFOs, that puts even greater value on clarity of information, credible planning and speed of execution. When conditions are less forgiving, those qualities can make the difference between staying in control and falling behind.