The new normal isn’t normal: why ‘macro’ is now a permanent operating condition

One of our Partners, Mary Anicet, explores how the macro environment is impacting CFOs and finance teams, and how the “new normal” of global events is changing how these teams operate.

The last few years have trained CFOs to treat disruption as a sequence of temporary problems to be worked through. COVID, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, cost of living crisis and now the Iran War have all led to peaks in uncertainty, before being replaced by the next geopolitical event. While each event has come as a shock, the subsequent impact has become somewhat of a new normal: supply chain shocks, inflation, spiralling energy costs, rising wages and changeable interest rates.

Set against this backdrop, CFOs have certainly had their work cut out for them, and with this has come a level of acceptance of the new norm. With the world showing no signs of stabilising, leaders have had to normalise market uncertainty and build it into their operations.

Why this changes the CFO agenda

When uncertainty like this becomes persistent, finance functions can’t operate as if volatility is a temporary phase. The macro becomes a permanent operating condition that continuously shapes pricing, customer behaviour and capital availability. How does this change the finance operating model?

1. Planning is no longer episodic 

Forecasting is becoming a rolling decision cycle. Assumptions move faster than reporting periods. What used to be a quarterly re-forecast becomes monthly, and in some cases weekly, because the organisation can’t afford to discover, a month late, that margins have moved or cash is tightening.

2. “Reconciled” isn’t the same as “decision-grade”

Stakeholders now want more than compliance-grade accuracy – they want decision grade clarity. When wage inflation, input costs and pricing are all moving at the same time, CFOs need to understand performance through the right operational dimensions and show what is driving change.

3. Capital doesn’t wait for you to be ready

We’re seeing peaks and troughs of activity in different corners of the market. ECM has been slower and more hesitant as people wait for clarity in the market. Private equity activity has continued to pick up somewhat, but deal processes are taking longer and scrutiny is deeper.

Given this, speed and preparedness have become strategic advantages. Good businesses are still good businesses, but they can be penalised if they can’t evidence resilience quickly and credibly when the moment arrives. Building a robust equity story well ahead of transactions can make all the difference to smooth processes along.

When does this new financial model become most acute? 

A more challenging macro environment can often push businesses to take on more debt to smooth over any pressures. While the underlying business may still be performing well, with higher debt comes a different level of scrutiny. CFOs need to demonstrate profitability, explain movements, evidence headroom and do it at a pace that keeps stakeholders confident.

This is often where the gap shows – the business is structurally sound but the evidence isn’t packaged in a way that stands up to external pressure. Models may exist, but they’re not integrated, not easily updated, or not trusted across stakeholders. Reporting may reconcile, but it doesn’t explain the operational “why” behind performance.

How Swan Partners can help

We work side-by-side with CFOs as an extension of the finance function to bring clarity, quality and speed when it matters.

In today’s macro environment where finance functions are expected to be faster and stakeholders are more demanding, CFOs often need extra firepower that can be parachuted in at short notice. These peaks of uncertainty, followed by another geopolitical event requires more than generic advice, but hands-on delivery that gets the key workstreams done and reduces pressure on the internal team. This is where we can add value, mobilising quickly with small, senior teams. The immediate benefit is pace and certainty in execution. The longer-term benefit is a finance function that is overall more resilient, forecasting and supporting decisions beyond moments of pressure to become a commercial, strategic force within a business.

The outlook for CFOs

With the macro environment proving ever more unpredictable, leadership teams are learning to absorb shocks and swap stability for resilience in operational models.

For CFOs, the opportunity now is to institutionalise that resilience: build a financial model that produces faster certainty, keeps the business investable and protects momentum to realise value when the market windows open.

Because in the new normal, the winners won’t be the businesses that correctly predict the next shock – they’ll be the ones that can adapt fastest with numbers everyone trusts.